The IEA says the war involving Iran will keep global natural gas markets tight for two years, after strikes cut Qatar LNG output and the Strait of Hormuz closure choked flows, delaying new supply growth through 2027.
Global natural gas markets are likely to remain tight for the next two years as the war involving Iran disrupts key supply routes and damages Qatar’s liquefied natural gas capacity, the International Energy Agency said Friday in its quarterly report.
The agency said the conflict’s impact will extend well beyond this year, with damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City—hit by Iranian strikes last month—curbing LNG supply growth and pushing back the effect of a long‑anticipated expansion wave by at least two years. Qatar’s energy minister said the strikes reduced Ras Laffan’s LNG capacity by 17% and warned repairs could take up to five years.
The IEA also cited the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which it said has cut off about one‑fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. Calling the disruption “the biggest crisis in history,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a France Inter interview this week that the shock is rippling through energy markets.
Short‑term losses paired with slower capacity growth could remove a cumulative 120 billion cubic meters of LNG from global supply through 2030, the agency estimated. While projects elsewhere are expected to offset some of the losses over time, the IEA said the impact will prolong tight conditions through 2026 and 2027.
On the demand side, the IEA noted global gas consumption fell in March, partly due to higher commodity prices and policy measures. Several Asian countries are pursuing demand‑side steps and fuel‑switching to trim gas use, the report said.
The timing of any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key uncertainty that will shape gas demand and trade patterns in 2026, according to the IEA. Markets will be watching for signs of repair progress in Qatar and how quickly new liquefaction projects elsewhere can ramp up.
Comments (0)