Trump says the U.S. blockade will stay until Iran accepts a nuclear deal, but analysts say Tehran has weeks of oil storage before the pressure peaks.
President Donald Trump’s blockade of Iran is putting heavy pressure on Tehran’s oil exports, but analysts say it is unlikely to cause the country’s oil infrastructure to fail within days as Trump has suggested.
The standoff now turns on which side can tolerate the pain longer. Trump has said the U.S. naval blockade will remain until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal. Tehran has refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. calls off its Navy, leaving a critical energy shipping route disrupted and oil markets on edge.
Trump said Sunday that Iran’s oil system could soon face a physical breakdown because crude is backing up behind the blockade. “Something happens where it just explodes,” Trump told Fox News, adding that he had been told Iran had “only three days left” before that point.
Energy analysts cited by CNBC said the timeline is likely much longer. Iran has enough storage capacity to keep taking in oil for at least several weeks, they said, giving operators time to reduce production in an orderly way and avoid lasting damage to fields.
Fernando Ferreira, head of Rapidan Energy’s geopolitical risk service, estimated Iran has at least 26 days before storage fills and production cuts become unavoidable, assuming 26 million barrels of onshore storage and 21 million barrels of floating storage in empty sanctioned tankers nearby. He said additional capacity could extend that timeline to well over two months, especially if Iran gradually lowers output.
“The question for me is who has a longer runway — Trump or Iran,” Ferreira said.
The blockade is still having immediate consequences. Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, said there has been no confirmed passage of an Iranian tanker through the U.S. blockade zone. Iran-linked ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz but did not make it beyond the blockade area, which stretches from the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Sea, according to Kpler.
Oil and condensate loadings at Iranian ports have dropped from 2.1 million barrels per day before the blockade to 567,000 barrels per day after it began, Kpler found. A White House official told CNBC that Tehran is losing $500 million a day and said the blockade will stay in place until Iran agrees to terms acceptable to the U.S.
The wider economic pressure is also rising. Brent crude futures jumped about 6% Wednesday to settle at $118.03 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose nearly 7% to $106.88, as traders weighed the risk of prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts said the physical risk to Iran’s oilfields depends less on storage alone than on whether production is shut down suddenly or managed over time. Antoine Halff, an expert at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and a former chief oil analyst at the International Energy Agency, said sudden, disorderly shutdowns can damage fields, but Iran’s storage gives it room to avoid that outcome.
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said Iran could cut production to the minimum needed for domestic consumption, making storage less decisive. The larger question, he said, is when Iran’s revenue runs out. He estimated Iran has 120 million barrels already loaded on tankers east of the blockade zone that could be delivered to buyers, including China, though selling the oil and collecting payment could still be difficult.
If the blockade holds for another two months, Falakshahi said, Iran’s oil revenue could fall to zero. For now, the blockade appears more likely to test Iran’s finances and the global economy than to produce the immediate oilfield collapse Trump described.
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