Polling stations opened across the United States on Tuesday in midterm elections in which Democrats are favoured to win the House of Representatives and are competitive in the fight for the Senate, according to Euronews.
Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four to take control. A net gain of three would produce a 50-50 chamber, where Vice President JD Vance would cast tie-breaking votes. Prediction markets give Democrats roughly a three-in-four chance of winning the Senate, Euronews reported. The Cook Political Report rates six races as toss-ups, all held by Republicans.
In the House, prediction markets give Democrats a 95 per cent chance of taking control, Euronews said. The Cook Political Report rates 222 seats as at least leaning Democratic, four more than the 218 needed for a majority, against 195 for Republicans, with 18 toss-ups. A strong night for Democrats could give them as many as 230 seats.
The Senate battleground covers 12 seats. Democrats are defending Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Republicans are defending Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
In North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, cancelled its remaining ads in early October after spending more than $30 million of a planned $71 million backing Michael Whatley. Former governor Roy Cooper leads Whatley by eight points in polls from Quantus Insights and Trafalgar Group, both Republican-leaning pollsters.
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 2.8 points in the RealClearPolitics average. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49 per cent to 47 per cent in a Texas Southern University poll, within the margin of error. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan 48 per cent to 46 per cent in a New York Times/Siena poll, also within the margin of error. The New York Times reported last week that Democratic operatives recruited a retired teacher, Daniel J. Sullivan, to run as a spoiler. Peltola denies involvement. Gov. Mike Dunleavy has ordered a criminal investigation, and the Justice Department unsuccessfully sued to stop Alaska from certifying the result if Sullivan loses.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Sen. Roger Marshall by 4.1 points in the RealClearPolitics average. In Maine, Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins by 3.6 points. In Iowa, Josh Turek is at 48 per cent and Ashley Hinson at 47 per cent in the Times/Siena poll. In South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham leads Democrat Annie Andrews by 2.6 points. In Nebraska, Sen. Pete Ricketts leads independent Dan Osborn by six points.
Michigan is the only Democratic-held seat in RealClearPolitics' toss-up column. With Sen. Gary Peters retiring, a Republican win there would force Democrats to find five flips. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 5.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average, while Trafalgar Group data puts him one point ahead.
On Sunday, Rep. Haley Stevens, whom El-Sayed narrowly beat in the Democratic primary, endorsed Rogers after being disinvited from a joint campaign event. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called it "a despicable betrayal."
Euronews noted that national polls have favoured Democrats but that pollsters underestimated Democrats in 2022 and Republicans in 2024. Turnout will determine the outcome.
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