Argentina have nearly identical win rates with and without Lionel Messi under Lionel Scaloni, a sharp change from their earlier dependence on the captain.
Argentina still revolves emotionally around Lionel Messi, but the results under Lionel Scaloni increasingly point to a national team that no longer needs its captain on the field simply to survive.
Figures published by Varzesh3 show Argentina have played 70 matches with Messi under Scaloni, winning 53, drawing 11 and losing six — a 76% win rate. Without him, they have played 24 matches, winning 18, drawing three and losing three, for a nearly identical 75% win rate.
That is a striking shift for a team that, for much of the past two decades, appeared to carry a heavy dependence on its No. 10. As Messi approaches his 39th birthday next week and a World Cup expected to be his last, the numbers frame Argentina’s title defense in a different way: not as a team scrambling to replace him, but as one that has learned how to function when he is absent.
The contrast with the previous era is sharp. During qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, Argentina won only once in eight matches without Messi and moved close to missing the tournament before his hat trick against Ecuador in the final match secured qualification.
Eight years later, the picture is far steadier. Argentina qualified from South America as group leader and sealed their place five rounds early, even though Messi missed six of the 18 qualifying matches. He still finished as the top scorer in the campaign with eight goals, according to the report.
Scaloni’s role in that transformation is central. Since taking charge, he has built a side that can balance Argentina’s traditional attacking ambition with a more pragmatic structure, reducing the sense that every difficult moment must be solved by Messi alone.
That does not mean Messi’s influence has faded. Even when absent, he remains a focal point for the squad. Julián Álvarez, the Atlético Madrid forward, said Messi spoke to the players by video call before a March match against Uruguay. “He talked to us like a captain who was there with us,” Álvarez said. “We are all soldiers behind him and we would do anything for him.”
Argentina’s challenge is now more subtle than in past cycles. If the world champions are to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup, they may not need Messi to carry them every week. But they will still need the moments that only he has so often provided.
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