Prediction markets are attracting young men seeking cash and thrills, but surveys, user accounts and analysts point to high risks and uneven returns.
Prediction markets are becoming a popular draw for young men who see the platforms as a chance to turn opinions about sports, politics and current events into quick cash — even as user accounts and financial analysts show how easily those bets can reverse.
CBS News reported that Thomas Christian Owens, a 29-year-old manufacturing engineer in Oklahoma City, opened a Kalshi account in January and began betting three months later after depositing $500. “It was a little bit of a birthday gift to myself to throw some money in there and just have some fun,” Owens told the outlet.
Owens’ experience captures both the appeal and the risk. He had early success on basketball-related wagers, including one bet that turned $196 into nearly $1,700. But after depositing $2,500 overall, his account balance later fell to about $1,700. “I had almost $4,600 at one point but squandered that, for sure,” he wrote in a text message cited by CBS News.
Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to future events, typically in the form of yes-or-no questions. Contracts are priced between zero and $1, and a correct prediction pays $1 per contract while a wrong call loses money. The markets can cover anything from sports outcomes to political remarks, entertainment events or geopolitical developments.
The user base is heavily male, according to figures cited by CBS News. An April survey from Navigator Research found that close to 40% of men ages 18 to 34 use prediction markets. On Kalshi, roughly 3 million of the platform’s 4 million active users are male, and six in 10 users are between 18 and 34.
Experts interviewed by CBS News said the pattern fits broader differences in risk-taking and financial confidence. Michael Liersch, a behavioral finance expert and chief planning officer at Edelman Financial Engines, said young men tend to show more confidence in financial decisions and risk-taking. David Bieri, an associate professor at Virginia Tech, said wins can also carry social status in markets that reward being seen as right.
The platforms have also drawn scrutiny over alleged insider trading. CBS News cited cases involving a Google employee accused of making more than $1.2 million on Polymarket using confidential information, a U.S. special forces soldier arrested after allegedly betting on the removal of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before news of a U.S. raid became public, and former Rep. George Santos of New York facing scrutiny over alleged insider trading on Kalshi.
For most users, analysts caution, the odds are not the same as the highlight stories. CBS News cited a Wall Street Journal analysis finding that more than 67% of profits on Polymarket went to 0.1% of accounts. Research from Citizens found the median return on investment for a prediction-market user was negative 8%, meaning a typical user would lose $8 for every $100 spent.
“People shouldn’t expect to walk into betting of any type and walk away a winner,” Jordan Bender, managing director of gaming equity research at Citizens, told CBS News.
Comments (0)