Prediction platforms are not offering Kentucky Derby markets as Churchill Downs points to horse-racing rules that require permission from tracks and regulators.
The Kentucky Derby will run Saturday in Louisville without a presence on major prediction-market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can otherwise find contracts tied to sports, politics, world events and entertainment.
The reason, according to Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen, is straightforward: the race’s owners do not want those platforms offering Derby or other horse-racing wagers without a deal. Churchill Downs owns the Kentucky Derby and the track where it is held.
“You need to actually go to us, those who own the race tracks, to cut a deal,” Carstanjen told CNBC in an interview this week. “And from our perspective, that's not something we're interested in doing.”
The dispute highlights a broader unresolved fight over prediction markets, which say they are offering regulated trading contracts rather than gambling. States have argued that platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket need licenses to offer sports-related wagers. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates event contracts and has filed lawsuits against states seeking to stop state action against prediction platforms, according to CNBC.
Horse racing sits in a distinct legal category. Under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, wagers on horse races require explicit permission from the host racetrack, the horsemen’s group representing owners and trainers, and the state racing commission where the race is held. That framework gives racetracks and racing stakeholders a gatekeeping role that differs from many other events prediction platforms may seek to list.
Carstanjen also argued that prediction markets would not fit the economics of racing, which rely in part on betting revenue to fund purses for winning horses.
Kentucky has also shown resistance to the prediction-market model. Lawmakers in the state have proposed legislation that would bar gambling licensees from offering predictions, along with a proposed 17.5% tax on prediction-market fees.
Kalshi declined to comment to CNBC on the absence of horse racing from its platform. Polymarket and the CFTC did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Traditional Derby betting, however, is proceeding. Churchill Downs said betting during Derby Week was up heading into the race, and Caesars said Derby wagering was tracking ahead of expectations. For now, anyone looking to bet on the Derby will have to do it through established racing and sportsbook channels rather than prediction-market contracts.
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