Dunkin’ is preparing to return to Canada through Foodtastic, but experts say Tim Hortons’ deep hold on Canadian coffee habits will be difficult to loosen.
Dunkin’ is preparing another run at the Canadian market, with new locations planned first for Toronto and Montreal, but experts say the U.S. coffee chain will face a difficult task in trying to pull customers away from Tim Hortons.
Montreal-based restaurant operator Foodtastic announced this week that it had reached a deal with Dunkin’ owner Inspire Brands to bring the chain back to Canada before expanding elsewhere. The move puts Dunkin’ into a crowded quick-service coffee market where Tim Hortons remains deeply woven into daily routines for many Canadians.
The two brands overlap on core menu items — coffee, doughnuts and breakfast sandwiches — but University of Guelph food economist Michael von Massow told CBC News he does not expect Dunkin’ to become a direct threat to Tim Hortons simply by offering similar products.
Tim Hortons, von Massow said, has built a powerful advantage around familiarity: customers know what to expect. “So, unless you come in and say this is profoundly better or this is more convenient or this is cheaper, I think it’s going to be hard to knock them off that perch,” he said.
Foodtastic CEO Peter Mammas struck a more confident note in an interview with CBC News, saying he believes Canadian consumers are ready for another national coffee option. “It’s a younger, cooler brand, and I think it’s something that’s missing in the landscape,” he said.
Where Dunkin’ may find room, von Massow suggested, is among customers interested in specialty drinks, a segment where the U.S. chain has built recognition. He also raised the possibility that Dunkin’ could look for markets where Starbucks is not already established.
Still, the brand will have to define how Canadians see it. Von Massow said one open question is whether customers will view Dunkin’ as a premium, customizable coffee stop or as a more traditional coffee-and-doughnut chain.
Tim Hortons also benefits from a cultural attachment that is harder to copy than a menu. Trent Rollings, CEO and lead educator at Timberline Coffee School in Calgary, told CBC News that the Canadian preference for a standard coffee with cream and sugar remains strong, in part because Tim Hortons helped shape how many Canadians drink coffee.
Rollings said the chain’s role as a neighborhood gathering place has also mattered. For Dunkin’, the first test will be whether new stores in Toronto and Montreal can create enough appeal to turn a comeback into a broader Canadian expansion.
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