The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2% as euro zone inflation rose to 3%, leaving a possible June move dependent on incoming data.
The European Central Bank kept its benchmark deposit facility rate at 2% on Thursday, choosing not to tighten policy immediately even as a fresh energy-driven inflation jump sharpened pressure on the euro zone economy.
The decision leaves policymakers balancing a renewed inflation threat against signs of weaker growth. Flash data released Thursday showed euro zone inflation rose to 3% in April, largely because of higher energy costs in the region, while first-quarter growth slowed to 0.1%.
In a statement, the central bank said that while its earlier view of the inflation outlook was broadly unchanged, “upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified.” The ECB said it remains committed to returning inflation to its 2% target over the medium term.
The bank said the war in the Middle East has pushed energy prices higher and weighed on economic sentiment. It added that the effect on medium-term inflation and activity will depend on how long and intense the energy shock proves to be, as well as whether it feeds into broader prices and wages.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said domestic demand remained the main driver of growth, supported by a resilient labor market, but she warned that the outlook was “highly uncertain” and tied closely to the duration of the war and its impact on energy, commodities and supply chains.
The numbers around this week’s European central-bank decisions refer to different measures: the ECB’s deposit facility rate remains 2%, euro zone inflation was reported at 3% in April, and a separate U.K. inflation reading cited ahead of the Bank of England decision stood at 3.3% in March.
Financial markets moved modestly after the ECB announcement. The euro traded nearly 0.2% higher against the dollar at $1.17, while euro zone government bond yields edged lower, including a 3-basis-point decline in the 10-year German bund yield to 3.0580%.
The ECB emphasized that it will proceed meeting by meeting and will not pre-commit to a rate path. That leaves the June meeting in focus, with some economists seeing a possible 25-basis-point increase if inflation pressures appear more persistent.
Mark Wall, Deutsche Bank’s chief European economist, said the ECB’s statement suggested confidence in the economy’s resilience but also growing concern if the conflict continues. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, said the euro zone’s policy rate is in neutral territory, which could give the ECB reason to act more quickly if inflation pressures become embedded.
For now, the ECB has opted to wait for more evidence rather than react immediately to the latest inflation shock. Its next decision will turn on whether energy prices stay elevated and whether the current jump in inflation begins to spread through the broader economy.
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