Oil prices fell and global stocks rose after reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran deal, though Washington and Tehran signaled agreement is not assured.
Oil prices fell sharply and global stock markets rose Wednesday as investors reacted to reports that the United States and Iran may be moving closer to an agreement to end the war and ease pressure on key energy routes.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly dropped to about $97 a barrel before recovering above $100. The pullback came after a volatile run-up: the BBC reported Brent had been above $108 earlier in the day, while CBC reported it had traded above $115 earlier in the week before falling to $103.54.
The market reaction reflected hope rather than certainty. Axios reported, according to the BBC, that U.S. officials believe the sides are close to a one-page document that would end the war and begin more detailed nuclear talks. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson later told the Iranian Students' News Agency that the U.S. proposal was still being considered.
President Donald Trump also signaled that a final deal was not guaranteed, saying on Truth Social that Iranian agreement remained a major assumption and warning that failure to reach a deal would bring bombardments at a higher intensity than during Operation Epic Fury.
Stocks rose across major markets. The FTSE 100 in London and Germany's Dax each closed more than 2% higher, while France's Cac 40 gained 3%. In Asia, South Korea's Kospi closed up 6.45%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.22% and Japan's Nikkei added 0.38%. In early U.S. trading, the S&P 500 was up about 1%, with CBC reporting gains for the Dow and Nasdaq as well.
The central economic concern is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway south of Iran through which about one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments usually pass. The strait has been effectively closed for weeks, and the conflict has disrupted oil production and transportation in the region, keeping crude prices far above the roughly $70-a-barrel level seen before the war began.
Trump said Tuesday he would pause a U.S. military effort to guide commercial ships through the strait while negotiators tried to finalize an agreement. The BBC reported that the proposal under discussion would declare an end to the war and open a 30-day negotiating period on reopening the strait, limiting Iran's nuclear program and lifting U.S. sanctions.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Tuesday that Washington preferred a deal, saying the initial U.S.-Israeli offensive in Iran was over because its objectives had been met. Iran has not responded directly to Rubio's remarks, and the BBC reported that the United States was awaiting Iran's response on several key points within 48 hours.
For now, the rally shows how quickly markets are responding to any sign that energy flows through the Persian Gulf could resume. It also leaves investors exposed to the next signal from Washington or Tehran if the reported agreement stalls.
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