The U.S.-Iran framework lifted markets and oil hopes, but the Strait of Hormuz remains slow to reopen and final talks still face major disputes.
The United States and Iran have announced a framework intended to end months of fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, offering immediate relief to energy markets while leaving major questions for further negotiations.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government has served as a mediator, said the agreement was reached after intensive talks and would be formally signed Friday in Switzerland. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that the deal with Iran was “now complete,” while Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said Tehran had finalized a memorandum of understanding that would halt military operations and lift the naval blockade against Iran.
The announcement did not resolve how durable the arrangement will be. Some accounts described the deal as a preliminary or tentative framework, and Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said negotiations toward a final agreement would continue for 60 days. The hardest issues — including Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, the future of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s regional allies — appear to be moving into the next phase of talks.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central test. Trump heralded the agreement with the message, “Let the oil flow!” and said the waterway would reopen to commercial shipping, though he later indicated the initial opening would be for mine removal. The strait has been closed to most shipping traffic since Feb. 28, cutting into a route that normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Early ship-tracking data suggested traffic had not yet returned in any meaningful way. BBC Verify, citing MarineTraffic, reported that only two vessels with active location trackers had exited the waterway since Sunday — a bulk carrier and a tanker. Hundreds of vessels have been stuck in the gulf, and shipping companies are still weighing the risks from mines, drones, insurance costs and the challenge of repositioning ships after a long disruption.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, told the BBC it remained unclear whether the agreement would become “a fragile truce or a durable settlement,” adding that oil flows through the strait were likely to take time to recover. Maersk said it was too early to assess the agreement’s effect on logistics and had not changed its operations in the region, while Hapag-Lloyd hoped to move its stranded ships once the deal is signed and mines are cleared.
Markets responded quickly to the prospect of lower energy risk. Brent crude fell to $83.55 a barrel after having peaked around $120 during the conflict, while U.S. stock futures rose, including gains in contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Still, analysts warned that volatility could persist before Friday’s signing and that fuel, fertilizer and shipping costs may take months to normalize.
The agreement also faces a regional security test. Iran said the halt in military operations would include Lebanon, where conflict involving Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah nearly disrupted the deal. Trump criticized Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday, but Israel’s defense minister said Israel would maintain forces in security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza for an unlimited period, raising doubts about how a broader ceasefire would be enforced.
Sanctions and nuclear limits remain unresolved. European leaders have said they are prepared to work with the United States, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency, but only on the condition that Iran never acquire a nuclear weapon. Reports citing Iranian outlets described possible sanctions relief and frozen assets as part of the next stage, while U.S. officials have tied economic benefits to Iranian compliance.
For now, the framework has lowered the immediate risk of wider war and a prolonged energy shock. Whether it becomes a lasting settlement will depend on Friday’s signing, the pace of mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz and the next round of talks over the issues the framework leaves unfinished.
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