A planned U.S.-Iran signing faces early tests as Trump warns the deal is not final, Israel keeps striking Lebanon and shippers await clarity on Hormuz.
A planned U.S.-Iran signing meant to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is facing immediate pressure from Israel’s continued operations in Lebanon, uncertainty over the deal’s terms and mixed signals about when a U.S. naval blockade will be lifted.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the memorandum of understanding with Iran is “not final” and warned that the United States could resume bombing if Tehran’s leaders do not comply. The remarks came two days before the expected signing in Switzerland of an agreement that U.S., Iranian and mediator statements have described in different terms since it was announced Sunday.
The stakes extend well beyond the negotiating table. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, and shipping firms have said they need clearer terms and security guarantees before normal traffic can resume. At the same time, Iran has warned that continuing Israeli military activity in Lebanon would violate the understanding it expects to sign with Washington.
The agreement was announced Sunday by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country has helped mediate between Washington and Tehran. Trump later said a deal had been reached and initially authorized the removal of the U.S. naval blockade, then said the strait would open Friday when the agreement is signed. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said Tehran had finalized a memorandum of understanding and that military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would cease immediately and permanently.
By Wednesday, however, Trump had shifted to a more conditional posture. Speaking to reporters at the G7 meeting in France, he said sanctions relief for Iran would not be immediate and would be clarified later. He also said he would restart military action if he was dissatisfied with Iran’s conduct.
Israel’s position has added another complication. Lebanon’s National News Agency reported Wednesday that Israeli forces carried out airstrikes in parts of southern Lebanon, including the Nabatieh al-Fawqa area and near Kfar Tebnit, as well as a drone strike in Ansariyeh. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Israel’s continued presence in Lebanon would be considered a violation of the U.S.-Iran agreement. Israeli officials said Monday that troops would remain in a wide section of southern Lebanon they have occupied for more than three months, and Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said, “Trump’s agreement does not bind us.”
G7 leaders welcomed the announced U.S.-Iran agreement as a breakthrough and an opportunity to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. They also called for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group whose conflict with Israel had already threatened the diplomatic effort earlier in the week.
Qatar, another mediator, has described the framework as a first step rather than a final settlement. Foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said Tuesday that Doha was “cautiously optimistic,” but warned that the region would not return quickly to business as usual after months of conflict and disruption. Qatar said the agreement is expected to restore normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing it to continue supplying liquefied natural gas.
Conditions at sea remain unsettled. CBS News, citing open-source tracking data from MarineTraffic.com, reported that five sanctioned Iranian ships crossed the U.S. blockade line in the Gulf of Oman over the previous 24 hours. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained low, with vessels transiting the gateway to the Persian Gulf in the single digits, compared with a historic average of about 135 vessels per day.
Oil prices have eased on hopes that the conflict could wind down and Hormuz could reopen. Brent crude traded lower Wednesday after a sharp fall the previous day, though it remained above levels seen before the war began in late February.
The immediate test is whether Friday’s signing produces enough clarity to hold together the ceasefire, reassure shippers and contain the Lebanon front. For now, the framework that was announced as a path out of war is still being shaped by battlefield decisions and unresolved terms.
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