U.S. and Iranian negotiators are working toward a peace deal tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but officials warn an agreement is not imminent.
WASHINGTON — The United States and Iran appeared to be moving closer Monday toward a deal that could extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but officials on both sides cautioned that no agreement had been completed and the threat of renewed fighting remained.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiators had a “pretty solid thing on the table” and suggested an agreement to end the conflict could come as soon as Monday. President Donald Trump has said the talks are moving constructively, while also saying he had instructed negotiators not to rush into a deal.
Iran has also described progress, but Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai said large portions of the issues under discussion had been agreed while warning that “no-one can make such a claim” that signing is imminent.
The stakes reach well beyond Washington and Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy corridor through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas usually passes, has been effectively closed since the conflict began on Feb. 28. Reopening the waterway is described across reports as a central piece of the emerging arrangement.
Oil markets responded quickly to the possibility of a breakthrough. Global benchmark Brent crude fell 5.5% Monday morning to $97.90 a barrel and traded around $97.70 in the afternoon, according to BBC reporting. Even after the slide, prices remained far above the roughly $70-a-barrel level seen before the war.
Trump said Saturday that an agreement would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though he gave no further details. He also said he had spoken with leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other countries about a memorandum of understanding tied to peace, and that final aspects of a deal were being discussed. NPR reported that Trump also spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The emerging framework still appears fragile. CBS News reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had agreed to broad principles, including on several difficult issues dividing the two countries, but that Trump was cautioning against rushing into a signing. NPR reported that Washington has made clear Iran must begin allowing ships through the strait, while Iran is seeking the unfreezing of its money in foreign banks and an end to Israel’s war in Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Nuclear issues remain one of the most sensitive unresolved areas. NPR reported that Iranian officials described a possible staged process in which a 30-day initial agreement on the strait would be followed by a 60-day period for nuclear discussions with the U.S. At the same time, NPR’s reporting noted that Iran has been rejecting discussions about its nuclear program, underscoring the uncertainty around what any final deal would actually require.
Even a signed agreement would not immediately restore normal trade through the Gulf. Shipping analyst Lars Jensen told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that companies would likely try to move vessels already stuck in the Persian Gulf but remain hesitant about sending ships back in if the deal faltered. He also said issues such as possible sea mines could mean months before supply chains return to prewar conditions.
For now, the next test is whether Tehran formally accepts the proposed terms and whether the parties can turn broad principles into an enforceable agreement that reopens the strait without reigniting the conflict.
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