The United States can turn its strong World Cup start into a place in the knockout stage on Friday, but the buildup to its Group D match against Australia is being shaped by one unresolved question: whether Christian Pulisic’s left calf will allow him to play in Seattle.
The USMNT and Australia meet at Seattle Stadium at 19:00 GMT after both opened the 2026 World Cup with wins. The United States beat Paraguay 4-1 in Los Angeles, while Australia defeated Turkiye 2-0 with a counterattacking performance that immediately put the Socceroos in the group conversation.
Pulisic’s availability remains open
Pulisic injured his left calf in training before the Paraguay match but still started the opener. He helped create the first goal, finding Weston McKennie before McKennie’s cross was turned into Paraguay’s net by Damian Bobadilla, and then set up Folarin Balogun for the second goal just after the half-hour mark.
With the United States ahead 3-0 at halftime, Pulisic did not return for the second half and was replaced by Sebastian Berhalter. On Thursday, he joined the team huddle before training with his calf still strapped, but did not take part in the session and instead went to the gym with staff.
US coach Mauricio Pochettino said Pulisic had improved since the opener but stopped short of confirming his place against Australia. “He’s evolving. He’s much better from Friday. We’ll see,” Pochettino told reporters. “If we see he’s not available, he will be available for the next game.”
If Pulisic is unavailable, the United States have several ways to adjust. Balogun is expected to remain central after scoring twice against Paraguay. Giovanni Reyna came off the bench and scored in stoppage time in that match, though his recent workload has been limited. Timothy Weah also made an impact as a substitute, while Berhalter offers set-piece ability. Brenden Aaronson and Alejandro Zendejas are additional attacking options.
How the qualification scenarios work
The equation is unusually clear for a second group match: if the United States beat Australia, they will move to six points and guarantee a top-two place in Group D, enough to enter the round of 32.
The Americans could also clinch first place in the group with a match to spare. A US win over Australia, combined with either a draw between Turkiye and Paraguay or a Paraguay win later Friday in Santa Clara, would secure top spot.
That matters because group position affects the next route through the expanded tournament. Group D’s winner is scheduled to play on July 1 at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium against a third-place team from one of Groups B, E, F, I or J. Possible opponents listed in the tournament guide include Bosnia, Ecuador, Sweden, Norway or Algeria.
The tiebreaking system also raises the stakes. Group positions are determined first by points, then by head-to-head results among teams level on points. Goal difference is used only when teams that are tied have drawn with each other.
Australia brings its own route through
Australia enter with the same immediate prize available. A Socceroos win in Seattle would also secure a knockout-stage place, and a win combined with either a Turkiye-Paraguay draw or a Turkiye victory would seal first place in Group D.
One reason Australia’s opener drew attention was Nestory Irankunda. The 20-year-old became Australia’s youngest World Cup scorer with his goal against Turkiye and the first overseas-born Australian to score at the tournament. Born in a Tanzanian refugee camp after his parents fled Burundi’s civil war, he moved to Australia as an infant, came through Adelaide United and later joined Bayern Munich before moving to Watford for regular playing time.
The United States are favoured by Opta’s pre-match simulations cited in the tournament guide, winning 58.5 percent of 25,000 scenarios. Australia won 20.6 percent, with a draw rated at 20.9 percent.
Those numbers do not settle the key question before kickoff. For the United States, the next few hours are about Pulisic’s calf and Pochettino’s lineup. For both teams, the larger opportunity is already in view: one win in Seattle could turn an encouraging start into confirmed World Cup progress.
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