The 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup opens Thursday with its largest field, a new tournament structure and no obvious team to beat, beginning at 3 p.m. ET when Mexico faces South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
The opening day also includes South Korea against Czechia in Guadalajara. Co-host Canada begins Friday at 3 p.m. ET against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Toronto, the first men’s World Cup match played on Canadian soil, before the United States meets Paraguay later that night in Los Angeles.
A bigger tournament changes the path
This World Cup is the first with 48 teams, up from 32 in Qatar in 2022, and the first staged across three countries. The United States will host 78 of the 104 matches across 11 cities, while Canada and Mexico will each host 13. Toronto and Vancouver will stage Canada’s games, with Vancouver also getting a round-of-16 match. From the quarterfinals onward, the tournament shifts entirely to the United States, ending with the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
The format still begins with four-team groups, but the expansion changes the stakes. The top two teams in each of the 12 groups advance, along with the eight best third-place teams, creating a 32-team knockout stage. That should give major contenders more room for error in the group phase, while making third-place math a central part of the first two weeks.
Group standings will also be settled differently. Wins remain worth three points, draws one and losses none, but head-to-head result is now the first tiebreaker before head-to-head goal difference and head-to-head goals. If teams are still level, the criteria move to overall goal difference, overall goals and fair-play points.
Spain and France lead a crowded chase
Betting markets cited by CBC Sports put Spain and France as narrow co-favourites, each around 5/1, or roughly a 17 per cent implied chance to win. Spain enters as reigning European champion and expects 18-year-old Barcelona forward Lamine Yamal to be available for its opener after a hamstring issue. France is led by Kylian Mbappé after reaching the last two World Cup finals, winning in 2018 and losing to Argentina on penalties in 2022.
England follows at about a 12 per cent implied chance as it seeks its first major trophy since the 1966 World Cup. Portugal, Brazil and defending champion Argentina sit near 10 per cent, with the tournament also carrying familiar late-career storylines: Lionel Messi is 38 and dealing with a hamstring injury, Neymar is trying to return from a calf injury for Brazil, and Cristiano Ronaldo, at 41, is preparing for a record sixth World Cup appearance.
Among the possible challengers, Norway arrives after a perfect European qualifying run powered by Erling Haaland, while Croatia is trying to extend the run of an aging core led by 40-year-old Luka Modric. Morocco, a semifinalist in 2022 and now the highest-ranked African team in the field, remains one of the most credible non-European or South American threats. Colombia, Senegal and Japan are also among the top-20 teams drawing attention.
Canada has a clearer route, but injuries loom
Canada enters its second straight World Cup after ending a 36-year absence in 2022, this time as an automatic qualifier and co-host. The men’s team is still searching for its first World Cup point and first World Cup win after going 0-6 across its 1986 and 2022 appearances.
The draw offers a real opportunity. Canada, ranked 30th in the world, faces No. 64 Bosnia and Herzegovina in Toronto, No. 57 Qatar on June 18 in Vancouver and No. 19 Switzerland on June 24 in Vancouver. With eight third-place teams advancing, even one win could put a team in position to reach the knockout stage.
The concern is availability. Captain Alphonso Davies is doubtful for the opener with a hamstring injury and questionable beyond that. Centre-back Moïse Bombito is also a concern because of issues with his surgically repaired leg, while midfielder Marcelo Flores tore his ACL and was replaced on the roster by Jayden Nelson. Jacob Shaffelburg, Ali Ahmed and Alfie Jones are also listed among Canada’s injury concerns.
Rules to watch once matches get tight
Group-stage matches can end in draws, but knockout games cannot. If a match is tied after 90 minutes plus added time, it moves to 30 minutes of extra time, split into two 15-minute periods. If it remains tied, the winner is decided by a best-of-five penalty shootout, followed by sudden death if the teams are still level.
Several rule changes will be visible throughout the tournament. FIFA has added mandatory three-minute hydration breaks in both halves of every match, regardless of temperature. IFAB-approved changes also include a five-second visual countdown for delayed throw-ins and goal kicks, a 10-second limit for substituted players to leave the pitch after the change is signaled, and expanded VAR review in several situations, including checks on whether corner kicks were correctly awarded.
For all the new rules and added teams, the tournament’s central question remains familiar: which contenders can survive the pressure when the margins narrow. The first answers arrive Thursday in Mexico City.
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