Ontario says an expanded Billy Bishop airport could add $8.5 billion a year by 2050, but no completed analysis has been released to back the claim.
Ontario is promoting a potential $8.5-billion annual economic gain from expanding Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport, but the province and the Toronto Port Authority have not released evidence showing how that figure was calculated.
The number has become a central part of Premier Doug Ford’s case for moving quickly on a plan that could allow jets at the island airport. The province has also proposed using special economic zone powers and taking over Toronto’s role in the tripartite agreement that governs the airport lands.
The Toronto Port Authority, which owns the airport, told CBC News that work is still underway to quantify the economic impact of modernizing Billy Bishop. It said preliminary work was done last year, but a full economic impact study is continuing into the fall.
The province has not said whether it conducted its own analysis. In response to CBC questions about why the government is relying on a figure from an unfinished port authority study, a spokesperson for Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria said the economic benefit “is too important to not move forward,” and argued that Ontario needs more airport options as the population grows.
The government has also pointed to congestion at Toronto Pearson as part of its rationale. But Pearson spokesperson Sean Davidson told CBC that while Pearson is busy at peak travel times, “we are not at capacity.” Pearson handled 47.3 million passengers in 2025, below its pre-pandemic 2019 level of 50.5 million, and has begun a modernization and expansion project intended to serve 65 million passengers annually.
Billy Bishop handled more than 1.7 million passengers in 2025, down from two million in 2024 and 2.7 million in 2019, according to figures cited in the report. The province has said expansion could raise Billy Bishop traffic to 10 million passengers a year.
Several experts questioned whether the economic case has been proven. Sandford Borins, a retired University of Toronto public management professor who has studied airport planning, said the Ford government has a pattern of announcing major plans “without having done any analysis.” He also said some traffic could simply shift from Pearson to Billy Bishop rather than create new economic activity.
Frédéric Dimanche, a Toronto Metropolitan University professor of hospitality and tourism management, said passenger counts do not automatically translate into major local spending, particularly when travellers come for short business trips and do not stay overnight.
The cost of expanding Billy Bishop to accommodate jets is also not settled. The port authority said the cost will depend on the final plan, which is not complete. Ford has said the province may consider helping pay for the project and suggested the federal government could benefit as well.
Federal approval would still be required under the tripartite agreement. Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon’s office did not directly address whether Ottawa would help pay for the expansion, but said the federal government would work with all parties to ensure safety, environmental, noise and community-impact standards are upheld for any future proposal.
For now, the province is pressing ahead with an economic promise that remains unsupported by a public, completed analysis. Critics are calling for an independent review before decisions are made on airport expansion, public funding or the future of jets on Toronto’s waterfront.
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