UK motorists are facing renewed pressure at the pump after the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran sent oil markets sharply higher and disrupted energy flows across the Middle East.
The RAC has warned that petrol and diesel prices could keep rising without a resolution to the conflict. On 5 May, average petrol stood at 157.2p a litre and diesel at 188.3p, after prices had surged from late February and then briefly eased in mid-April.
The increases have already been significant for drivers. The RAC said petrol peaked at 158.3p a litre and diesel at 191.5p during the recent run-up. Filling a typical family car became about £14 more expensive for petrol and £27 more expensive for diesel.
Why oil prices feed through to forecourts
Crude oil is a core ingredient in petrol and diesel, so swings in wholesale oil prices eventually show up in pump prices. Analysts cited in the source material estimate that every $10 increase in the oil price adds roughly 7p a litre to forecourt prices.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, has been highly volatile since the war began on 28 February, rising from $73 a barrel to as high as $126 at one point. Price changes do not appear instantly at petrol stations because moving oil through the supply chain takes time; wholesale shifts typically take about two weeks to reach the pump.
RAC head of policy Simon Williams called the short-term outlook “ominous,” saying wholesale petrol and diesel prices had jumped by about 5p a litre in a week and were at their highest since the war began. “If oil prices, and in turn wholesale fuel prices, remain at elevated levels over the coming weeks then future price rises at forecourts are all but inevitable,” he said.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point
The biggest uncertainty for oil markets is the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil and liquefied natural gas. The waterway usually carries about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG, but it has been effectively closed since the war began.
Oil prices fell after a temporary ceasefire was announced, but rose again as the strait remained closed. BBC Verify analysis cited in the source found only a handful of ships had crossed since the ceasefire, compared with about 138 vessels a day under normal conditions. The US has said its military would guide cargo ships through the strait under “Project Freedom,” while Iran has said vessels can cross only with its authorisation.
The UK is not facing an immediate shortage of petrol, diesel or jet fuel, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said in April. The UK relies heavily on oil and gas imports, mainly from the US and Norway, and as a member of the International Energy Agency must hold 90 days’ worth of net oil imports; the source material says it currently has more than that.
Prices are still below the highs reached in summer 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when petrol hit 191.5p a litre and diesel reached 199p. Fuel retailers have denied accusations of profiteering during the current conflict, and the official markets regulator found profit margins were “broadly unchanged” between February and March. For drivers, the next major test is whether shipping through Hormuz resumes more normally — or whether elevated oil prices continue to feed into forecourt costs.
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