شاخص تورم مورد علاقه Fed در آوریل به ۳.۸ درصد افزایش یافت، بالاترین سطح از مهٔ ۲۰۲۳، که شروع کار کوین وارش بهعنوان رئیس بانک مرکزی را پیچیدهتر کرده است.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated in April to its highest level in nearly three years, giving new Fed chief Kevin Warsh an immediate test as price pressures revive and hopes for interest-rate cuts weaken.
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose at a 3.8% annual rate last month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That was up from 3.5% in March and 2.8% in February, and marked the highest reading since May 2023.
The report matters because PCE is the inflation gauge Fed officials rely on most closely when setting interest-rate policy. The April increase was driven in part by higher energy costs, with the broader inflation backdrop complicated by the impact of the Iran war on fuel prices.
The reading was slightly below the 3.9% annual inflation rate economists polled by FactSet had expected. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% from a year earlier, matching forecasts.
Still, the direction of travel is awkward for Warsh, who is taking over after Senate confirmation this week and has promised a “regime change” at the central bank. Earlier this year, the Fed had projected one rate cut in 2026, but economists cited in the source material now see that outcome as less likely after the jump in fuel costs.
President Donald Trump has pressed the central bank to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, arguing that cheaper credit would support growth. The new inflation data cuts the other way, giving policymakers less room to ease if they judge that price increases are becoming more persistent.
Energy posted the largest increase in April, but the Commerce Department figures also showed price gains in housing and utilities, recreation services and food services. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote on social media that the slightly cooler-than-expected headline number offered “little comfort on Main Street” because inflation remains near a three-year high and is eroding wage gains.
Bond-market signals have also turned more hawkish. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said investors appear to believe the Fed is behind the curve, pointing to the 2-year Treasury yield trading above the federal funds rate. “The market is signaling that the current FFR is too low to curb inflation and may have to be hiked,” Yardeni wrote in a note to clients.
Market pricing has shifted accordingly. CBS cited CME FedWatch data showing a 40% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting, up from 3% for the June meeting. CNBC separately reported that Fed funds futures traders were pricing in no rate cuts for the rest of the year.
The figures cited in the source material refer to different benchmarks: April PCE inflation was reported at 3.8%, economists had expected 3.9%, and the Fed’s long-run inflation target remains 2%. The next test for Warsh will be whether policymakers merely drop their easing bias or signal a greater willingness to tighten if inflation keeps moving higher.
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